IBOPE Zogby Poll: Perry Races Far Ahead of Republican Field; 4 Announced GOP Candidates Tie or Lead Obama
Romney Best of Announced Candidates Against Obama
UTICA, NY--In his first polling test against other announced Republican candidates for President, Texas Gov. Rick Perry is far ahead of the field with 41%, more than three times the total of second-place trailer Mitt Romney.
Four of the announced GOP candidates are tied or ahead of President Barack Obama, with Romney the only one with a lead beyond the poll's margin of error.
These results are from an IBOPE Zogby interactive poll conducted from Aug. 25-29. The likely voter sample size for match-ups of Republicans against Obama is 2,335, and for the Republican nomination is 1,184 likely Republican primary voters.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who continues to say he will not run for president, continues to be the strongest possible Obama opponent in our IBOPE Zogby polling with a 49%-40% lead. Romney leads Obama, 45%-40%, while Perry has a two-point lead over the president and Herman Cain and Rep. Ron Paul are tied. Rep. Paul Ryan, whom some promoted as a possible candidate before he took himself out of the running last week, also ties Obama.
In addition to taking a big lead as GOP voters' first choice for the nomination, Perry is now seen among Republican voters as most likely to win the nomination, a position Romney had held. Perry also leads when unannounced candidates Christie, Ryan and Sarah Palin are included in the GOP voter preference question.
Match-Ups with Barack Obama (All voters)
If the election for President were held today and the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and each of the following Republicans, for whom would you vote?
|
GOP Candidate |
Obama |
Opponent |
Someone else |
Not Sure |
|
Chris Christie |
40% |
49% |
6% |
5% |
|
Rick Perry |
44% |
46% |
7% |
3% |
|
Mitt Romney |
40% |
45% |
11% |
3% |
|
Herman Cain |
44% |
44% |
9% |
4% |
|
Paul Ryan |
43% |
43% |
8% |
5% |
|
Michele Bachman |
46% |
41% |
12% |
2% |
|
Ron Paul |
40% |
40% |
15% |
5% |
|
Rick Santorum |
45% |
40% |
11% |
5% |
|
Sarah Palin |
46% |
39% |
13% |
3% |
|
Newt Gingrich |
45% |
38% |
14% |
3% |
|
Jon Huntsman Jr. |
38% |
30% |
22% |
10% |
Announced GOP Candidates Only (GOP primary voters)
If the Republican primary for President were held today, for whom would you vote?
|
Candidate |
Aug 29 |
July 25 |
July 11 |
June 30 |
June 21 |
|
Rick Perry |
41% |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Mitt Romney |
12% |
17% |
15% |
14% |
15% |
|
Ron Paul |
11% |
11% |
13% |
11% |
13% |
|
Michele Bachmann |
9% |
25% |
28% |
34% |
24% |
|
Herman Cain |
8% |
18% |
16% |
15% |
15% |
|
Rick Santorum |
3% |
5% |
3% |
7% |
5% |
|
Jon Huntsman, Jr. |
3% |
3% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
|
Newt Gingrich |
3% |
1% |
4% |
2% |
2% |
|
Gary Johnson |
<1% |
<1% |
1% |
<1% |
2% |
|
Fred Karger |
<1% |
1% |
<1% |
0% |
0% |
|
Other |
2% |
3% |
4% |
1% |
4% |
|
Not Sure |
8% |
9% |
10% |
8% |
13% |
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Announced GOP Candidates Plus Christie, Ryan & Palin (GOP primary voters)
If the Republican primary for President were held today, for whom would you vote?
|
Candidate |
Aug 29 |
|
Rick Perry |
30% |
|
Chris Christie |
15% |
|
Ron Paul |
10% |
|
Mitt Romney |
8% |
|
Herman Cain |
7% |
|
Michele Bachmann |
6% |
|
Paul Ryan |
5% |
|
Sarah Palin |
4% |
|
Jon Huntsman Jr. |
3% |
|
Rick Santorum |
2% |
|
Newt Gingrich |
2% |
|
Gary Johnson |
<1% |
|
Fred Karger |
<1% |
|
Other |
1% |
|
Not sure |
9% |
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding
We also asked Republican primary voters whom they would never vote for and whom they believe would win the GOP nomination.
Which of the following candidates would you never vote for? (GOP primary voters)
|
Candidate |
Aug 29 |
July 25 |
|
Jon Huntsman Jr. |
45% |
40% |
|
Ron Paul |
37% |
37% |
|
Newt Gingrich |
35% |
42% |
|
Gary Johnson |
33% |
32% |
|
Fred Karger |
33% |
34% |
|
Sarah Palin |
30% |
28% |
|
Mitt Romney |
24% |
29% |
|
Rick Santorum |
24% |
24% |
|
Michele Bachmann |
23% |
21% |
|
Herman Cain |
16% |
16% |
|
Rick Perry |
15% |
16% |
|
Paul Ryan |
10% |
- |
|
Chris Christie |
9% |
12% |
|
Not sure |
16% |
16% |
Regardless of whom you intend to vote for, who do you think will get the nomination? (GOP primary voters)
|
Candidate |
Aug 29 |
July 25 |
|
Rick Perry |
52% |
20% |
|
Mitt Romney |
23% |
37% |
|
Ron Paul |
4% |
5% |
|
Michele Bachmann |
2% |
7% |
|
Chris Christie |
1% |
1% |
|
Herman Cain |
1% |
2% |
|
Sarah Palin |
1% |
1% |
|
Newt Gingrich |
1% |
<1% |
|
Jon Huntsman Jr. |
1% |
- |
|
Paul Ryan |
1% |
- |
|
Fred Karger |
0% |
- |
|
Rick Santorum |
<1% |
<1% |
|
Other |
<1% |
1% |
|
Not sure |
14% |
22% |
Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding
IBOPE Zogby International conducted an online survey of 2,335 voters and 1,184 likely Republican primary voters. A sampling of IBOPE Zogby International's online panel, which is representative of the adult population of the U.S., was invited to participate. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender and education to more accurately reflect the population. The margin of error on the all likely voter sample is +/- 2.1 percentage points. The margin of error for the likely Republican primary voters is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups. The MOE calculation is for sampling error only.
For more information, contact Corry Schiermeyer in the Communications Dept --202-429-0022
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